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IOM Iraq DTM Return Index: Findings Round Nine (July 2020)

Country: Iraq Source: International Organization for Migration CONTEXT The Return Index is a tool designed to measure the severity of conditions in locations of return. Data collection for the Return Index Round 8 took place during the months of May and June 2020 across eight governorates, 38 districts and 2,013 locations in Iraq. During Round 9, an additional 163 locations of return were assessed. RETURNEE POPULATION IN SEVERE CONDITIONS Out of the 2,013 return locations assessed, 487 present severe conditions hosting 14 per cent of the returnee population, or 659,082 individuals. An increase of 142,530 returnees living in severe or poor conditions has been observed since the previous round collected in January February 2020, when 11% of the returnee population (516,552 individuals) were in severe conditions. The largest increases were recorded in Ninewa (108,558), Diyala (33,546) and Anbar (19,506) governorates. In Ninewa, the largest increases were recorded in Telafar, Mosul and Al-Ba aj due to increasing concern about different sources of violence, worsening of the employment situation and change in daily public life caused by the COVID 19 outbreak and the lockdown. In Diyala, the largest increase was in Al-Muqdadiya, where due to the outbreak and lockdown the worsening of condition for businesses, employment and daily public life was observed. In Anbar, the largest increase was observed in Falluja also due to the lockdown, which affected the provision of basic and government services, concern about different sources of violence and daily public life. Salah al-Din and Ninewa are the governorates hosting the highest number of returnees living in severe conditions, with 273,036 and 173,628 individuals respectively. Diyala and Salah al-Din host the highest proportions of returnees living in severe conditions (34% and 25% respectively). MOST SEVERE LOCATIONS OF RETURN Fifty-five locations hosting 53,268 returnees were identified as having the most severe return conditions in this round. The top five of these locations remain in Tuz Khurmatu District in Salah al-Din Governorate (535 returnees) and in Telefar District in Ninewe (4,572 returnees). An additional 10 locations were observed with the most severe return conditions since the previous round collected in January February 2020, when 45,594 individuals were across 45 locations with the most severe return conditions. METHODOLOGY The Return Index is based on 16 indicators divided into two scales: Scale 1, on livelihoods and basic services, and Scale 2, centered around social cohesion and safety perceptions. A regression model is used to assess the impact of each of the indicators in facilitating or preventing returns and to calculate scores for two scales. For example, the model tests how much less likely a location where no agricultural activities have recovered is to have returns compared to a location where they have recovered. To compute an overall severity index, the scores of the two scales are combined. The index ranges from 0 (all essential conditions for return are met) to 100 (no essential conditions for return are met). Higher scores denote more severe living conditions for returnees. The scores of the severity index are grouped into three categories: low, medium and high (which also includes very high). Please refer to the report Methodological Overview for more details on the methodology.


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