Monday 18 March 2019
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reliefweb - 4 days ago

Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone Idai - Estimated Impacts Warning 23, 14 March 2019 2100 UTC

Source: Pacific Disaster Center Country: Mozambique, Zimbabwe
JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141631Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING OF EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 40NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM FMEE, KNES, AND PGTW, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A 141631Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS AND AN 141745Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 97 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH CONDUCIVE SST VALUES (27-28C) AND LOW (10- 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DESPITE WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18S HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT DIVERGES SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND AFTER TAU 6. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.


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